Do you think the following make good stocks for long-term investment in India?
DLF, PUNJ LLOYD, RELIACE, TATA STEEL, ICICI BANK, HDFC, HDFC BANK, L&T, BHEL, SBI, BHARTI, TATA POWER, NTPC, ONGC, IFCI, GMR INFRA, HPCL.
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
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Yes certainly. You have picked up the most of index heavy weights and a right mix of sectors.
Oil, banking/finance, Autos, Infrastructure. Most of these are still at a moderate price range trading at around 12 to 35 P/E ratios which is quite conservative.
Stocks like PUNJ are at higher P/E but they are showing great numbers in terms of sales and cash flows.
The consensus among the traders is still a "strong buy". They have also declared Q3 results in late Dec 2007 which is a whopping 390 million in profits compared to 190 million in same quarter last year.
ICICI has a huge market cap. Its still in the No 1 spot amongnst its peers. Fundamentals are strong although the current and quick ratios might appear very low compared to its peers. HDFC is another interesting stock with lot of strong fundamentals.
When you are referring Reliance I hope its Reliance Petro. Again a great stock primarily because of oil prices hitting the roof.
Reliance like the Tatas are very well diversified. I would like to hedge the portfolio of Reliance with its own set of companies
something like a pool investing with a mix of reliance stock.
BHEL is a great value stock. Its recent Joint Venture with NTPC for EPC activities in power sector has been valuable. They recently got a 15000 crore project which is its all time high. Coupled with lot of infrastructure development happening in India this stock is going to be conservatively growing but a definite long term investment. Plus it has the added advantage of being a public sector company. You dont have SAIL (Steel Authority of India) in your list but I would recommend that stock as well.
BHARTI Airtel has done some phenomenal progress in network expansions. Its become a leading cell operations in India, has
lifted 50% stake in Network i2i (undersea cabling), setting up contract with Nokia Siemens for deployment of IVRs.
DLF (Ambuja Cement) - I wouldnt bet much on this stock even for a long term. I mean its been a regular company with steady
growths but lacks lustre. Its a good hedge to the overall portfolio but I would rather invest in mutual fund.
Tata Steel - again a good stock. It has been steadily acquiring turnkey projects in the middle east and showing great net
profit margins of over 25%. Although there has been a "wait and watch" signal among the traders for this stock I would go for it considering the long term.
I think the key drivers are going to be minerals, mining, engineering sectors for 2008. There is going to be a lot of turmoil in the stock market scene in the first 3 qtrs of 2008 with US recession fears, subprime lending, diminishing US consumer
confidence, slowdown in FDI. But I think later in 2008, the market should again see an uptick with new US government getting elected and boosting some growth. Also I think you should redefine the "long term" strategy with rolling stocks. I would say
3-5 yrs is a good cycle for the current stock market to be qualified as long term. Stock picks should then be redone with new sectors and companies coming into fore.
I hope my limited knowledge in this arena will definitely give you some pointers and wish you a good luck investing !
Thanks
DJ
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